2016年几内亚出产2760万吨铝土矿

2016年几内亚出产2760万吨铝土矿

 世界银行4月26日发布《大宗商品市场展望》（Commodity Markets Outlook），根据该报告，近年来铝土矿主要生产大国如下：

几内亚铝土矿产量统计

资料来源：世界银行《大宗商品市场展望》，2017年4月26日

世行《大宗商品市场展望》2017年4月.pdf

驻几内亚使馆经商处

2017年4月28日

世行官网的有关报道：

世界银行：2017年工业大宗商品价格趋涨

2017年4月26日

预测2017年油价平均每桶55美元，明年趋涨

2017年4月26日，华盛顿：世界银行预测今明两年工业类大宗商品价格趋涨，以能源和金属为主。

世界银行4月期《大宗商品市场展望》保持对今年原油价格每桶55美元的预测不变，预计2018年涨至平均每桶60美元。在石油出口国组织（欧佩克）和非欧佩克国家减产的支持下，油价上涨将会使市场逐渐实现再平衡。假如美国页岩油产业回升幅度大于预期，这些油价预测仍有下行风险。

能源类大宗商品价格、也包括天然气和煤炭价格预计今年上涨26%，2018年上涨8%。与油价预测相一致，天然气价格在美国涨价的引领下，预计今年上涨15%。煤炭价格预计2017年上涨6%，原因是早些时候中国对煤炭供应的限制。中国煤炭消费量占世界总产量的一半。

非能源类大宗商品、包括农产品、化肥和金属矿产在内，预测2017年价格出现五年来首次上涨。金属价格预计今年上涨16%，原因是需求旺盛，特别是来自中国的需求旺盛，以及智利、印尼和秘鲁等国金属矿受到干扰等原因造成的供应紧张。

大型金属矿出现的罢工和合同纠纷导致铜价上涨。不过，随着基准利率上调和为保值避险的抢购潮消退，贵金属价格预计今明两年分别下降1%。

在非能源类大宗商品构成中，预计谷物降价的影响将被油料和粗粉及原材料涨价所抵消，因而农产品价格指数总体上预计今年保持稳定。

“有利的形势将小麦、玉米和稻谷的库存使用比推高到15年来的最高点，”世行高级经济学家、《大宗商品市场展望》报告主要作者约翰·巴菲斯说，“评估显示今明两年全球主要谷物供应将出现盈余。”

包括咖啡、可可和茶叶在内的饮料由于供应量大于预期，预测2017年价格降幅将超过6%。农业原材料价格预计上涨4%。厄尔尼诺和拉尼娜现象的结束，对2017-2018年农业大宗商品预测价格的上行风险起了限制作用。

世界银行《大宗商品市场前景》报告提供对包括能源、金属、农产品、贵金属和化肥在内的主要大宗商品组别的详尽市场分析。报告包括对46种大宗商品至2030年的价格预测。

Industrial Commodity Prices to Rise in 2017: World Bank

April 26, 2017

Oil prices to average $55 per barrel in 2017, rise next year

WASHINGTON, April 26, 2017— The World Bank is forecasting higher prices for industrial commodities, principally energy and metals, in 2017 and next year.  

The World Bank in its April Commodity Markets Outlook is holding steady its crude oil price forecast for this year at $55 per barrel, increasing to an average of $60 per barrel in 2018. Rising oil prices, supported by production cutbacks by Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC states, will allow markets to gradually rebalance. These oil price forecasts are subject to downside risks should the rebound in the U.S. shale oil industry be greater than expected.

Prices for energy commodities, which also include natural gas and coal, are projected to jump 26 percent this year and 8 percent in 2018. In line with oil price forecasts, natural gas is anticipated to gain 15 percent this year, led by a jump in U.S. prices. Coal is seen climbing 6 percent in 2017, due to earlier supply restrictions in China, which consumes half the world’s coal output.

Prices for non-energy commodities, which include agriculture, fertilizers, and metals and minerals, are forecast to increase in 2017, the first rise in five years. Metals prices are projected to jump 16 percent this year due to strong demand, especially from China, and supply constraints, including mine disruptions in Chile, Indonesia and Peru.

Download the April Commodity Markets Outlook

Labor strikes and contractual disputes at large mines have contributed to higher copper prices. However, precious metals are expected to decline by 1 percent this year and 1 percent next year as benchmark interest rates rise and safe-haven buying ebbs.

Among the components of non-energy commodities, the agriculture price index as a whole is expected to remain stable this year, as declines in grains are expected to be offset by price rises for oils and meals and raw materials.

“Favorable conditions have pushed stocks-to-use ratios to 15-year highs for wheat, maize and rice,’” said John Baffes, Senior Economist and lead author of the Commodity Markets Outlook. “Assessments point to a surplus this year and next for global supplies of key grains.”

Beverages, which include coffee, cocoa, and tea prices, are forecast to drop more than 6 percent in 2017 due to greater-than-expected supply. Agricultural raw materials are projected to rise 4 percent. The end of the El Niño/La Niña cycle limits upside price risk for the 2017-2018 agricultural commodity forecasts.

The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook provides detailed market analysis for major commodity groups, including energy, metals, agriculture, precious metals, and fertilizers. The report includes price forecasts to 2030 for 46 commodities and provides historical price data.